The EUR/USD pair has experienced a sharp and prolonged extension of its downward trajectory, breaching the critical 1.1323/1.1553 support zone last week following a definitive rejection from the 1.1710 threshold. Technical evaluations of the currency pair indicate that the selling pressure shows no meaningful signs of exhaustion or bottoming out, leaving market participants focused on further downside targets as the new trading week gets underway.
Initial technical bias for the pair remains firmly tilted to the downside. Current projections point toward a test of the 100% projection level calculated from the downward move spanning 1.1848 down to 1.1323, projected outward from the 1.1710 swing high, which targets 1.1185. A decisive and firm break beneath this immediate support level could act as a catalyst for an accelerated downward plunge, potentially pushing the exchange rate toward the 161.8% projection landmark situated at 1.0861. Conversely, any attempts by the euro to mount a recovery will first need to clear the minor resistance level established at 1.1310. Surpassing that barrier would neutralize the current bearish bias and likely force the pair into a period of near-term consolidation before any clearer directional trend can emerge.
Examining the broader technical landscape, the recent price developments suggest that the medium-term decline originating from the 1.2081 peak may be actively reversing the preceding upward correction that rallied from the 2025 low of 1.0176. Furthermore, this bearish wave could even be dismantling the longer-term recovery that originated from the significant 2022 cyclical low of 0.9534. Should this broader structural shift continue to play out, market strategists anticipate even deeper losses over the coming sessions and weeks, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire 1.0176 to 1.2081 rally coming into focus at 1.0904. For the time being, the overarching market risk will remain decisively skewed to the downside as long as the key overhead resistance at 1.1710 remains intact, limiting any potential corrective rebounds.
Looking further ahead at the long-term technical picture, immediate market attention is converging on the 55-month Exponential Moving Average, which is currently hovering around the 1.2246 level. A sustained and confirmed break below this influential moving average would provide substantial technical backing to the argument that the extensive recovery rally originating from the 2022 low of 0.9534 has officially reached its completion. According to this structural analysis, that upward move would be classified as a completed three-wave corrective pattern that culminated at the 1.2081 high. This peak was established following a rejection precisely near the 38.2% retracement level of the massive historical downswing from 1.6039 down to 0.9534, which sits at 1.2019—a region tightly aligned with the vital psychological milestone of the 1.2000 major figure. Such a development would reinforce the integrity of the broader, long-term secular downtrend that has dominated the EUR/USD pairing since its record high of 1.6039 was recorded back in 2008.
As trading activity progresses, currency market participants will continue to monitor how price action reacts around these critical technical intersections. The inability of the single currency to establish a reliable foundation above the recently broken support zones underscores the persistent underlying strength of the US dollar across major foreign exchange markets. With upcoming economic data releases and shifting central bank monetary policy expectations likely to influence broader sentiment, the technical levels outlined by market analysts will serve as crucial reference points for traders navigating the volatility in the euro-dollar exchange rate.
