The EUR/USD currency pair experienced renewed selling pressure over the past week, edging lower to 1.1159 and breaching a critical technical projection level. Market participants closely monitoring the pair noted that the move decisively broke through the 100% projection of the downward leg from 1.1848 down to 1.323, calculated from the 1.710 interim peak at the 1.185 mark. Following this breach, the currency pair entered a phase of sideways consolidation, prompting analysts to evaluate the sustainability of the current momentum and map out potential trajectories for the days and weeks ahead.
Heading into the current trading week, the initial technical bias for EUR/USD remains neutral to bearish, with market consensus anticipating further downside movement. A decisive break beneath the 1.1159 handle would effectively extend the broader downward correction that originated from the 1.1710 swing high. Technical projections indicate that such an extension could quickly target the 161.8% Fibonacci projection level, located down at 1.0861.
Despite the prevailing downward momentum, traders are keeping a close watch on potential upside recovery scenarios. Analysts point out that a decisive breach of the 1.1284 minor resistance level would invalidate the immediate bearish bias, shifting market sentiment back toward the upside and paving the way for a stronger technical rebound before any further selling materializes.
To fully understand the current juncture for the world’s most heavily traded currency pair, market strategists are increasingly looking at the broader, medium-term picture. Recent price developments strongly suggest that the downward correction from the 1.2081 medium-term top may be actively reversing the preceding upward trajectory that began at the 2025 low of 1.0176. Furthermore, some technical models indicate this reversal could even extend back to challenge the foundational rise established at the 2022 low of 0.9534.
As the technical landscape shifts, analysts project that deeper losses could unfold over the medium term, with sights firmly set on the 61.8% retracement level of the entire 1.0176 to 1.2081 rally, which sits at 1.0904. For the time being, overall market risk remains firmly tilted to the downside, provided that the major resistance ceiling at 1.1710 continues to hold against any attempted bullish rebounds.
Expanding the perspective even further into the long-term charts, immediate market focus has converged heavily on the 55-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is currently hovering around the 1.246 mark. A sustained, confirmed break below this crucial moving average would carry significant structural implications for the currency pair. Specifically, it would strongly argue that the extensive multi-year recovery from the 2022 low of 0.9534 has officially reached its conclusion. Under this technical interpretation, the rise to 1.2081 would be categorized as a completed three-wave corrective move, heavily influenced by a sharp rejection at the 38.2% retracement of the massive historical decline from the 2008 high of 1.6039 down to the 0.9534 low, a zone that converges near the 1.2019 level and aligns closely with the key psychological threshold of 1.2000.
Should this long-term technical scenario play out, it would reinforce the longevity and structural integrity of the broader secular downtrend originating from the historic 1.6039 peak recorded in 2008. As currency traders and institutional investors navigate these complex multi-timeframe technical levels, market volatility surrounding the euro and the US dollar is expected to remain elevated, with upcoming macroeconomic data releases and central bank commentary likely serving as catalysts for the next decisive breakout or breakdown.
